Trump raising questions about retaking an Afghan air base is purely rhetorical speculation with no concrete policy action, executive order, or institutional mechanism. A-score minimal: separation_of_powers scores 1 only because foreign policy is executive domain, but questioning (not directing) yields mechanism_modifier of 0.3 for speculative policy_change. International scope with narrow population further reduces impact (0.7 modifier). Final A=0.03. B-score moderate at 14.69: media_friendliness high (4) as Afghanistan withdrawal remains contentious, outrage_bait moderate (3) from both interventionist and isolationist camps, layer2 narrative_pivot (3) as it signals potential reversal of withdrawal stance. However, this is a question, not a policy announcement or action. With A<25, B<25, no mechanism, and clear noise indicators (speculative, no action, rhetorical question), this classifies as Noise with high confidence.