Weekly civic intelligence report ยท v2.2
One of Trump's executive orders could impact the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially allowing greater executive branch control over monetary policy. This represents institutional norm erosion regarding central bank autonomy.
Federal Reserve independence is a critical institutional norm protecting monetary policy from political interference. The separation of powers score is maximal (5) as this directly challenges the independence of a quasi-governmental institution with constitutional implications. Rule of law (4) reflects erosion of established norms around central bank autonomy dating to 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. Institutional capture (4) reflects potential executive control over monetary decisions. Corruption (2) for potential conflicts between political interests and economic policy. Norm erosion mechanism reduces modifier to 0.7 as no formal legal change yet, only potential impact. Severity multipliers elevated: durability 1.2 (norm erosion compounds), reversibility 1.1 (norms harder to restore), precedent 1.3 (Fed independence globally significant). Base 24.3 * 0.7 * 1.0 = 22.4. B-score: Layer 1 high on novelty (7, unprecedented modern challenge), media friendliness (8, economic anxiety angle), outrage bait (6, institutional threat), meme_ability (3, complex topic). Layer 2: pattern match (7, fits authoritarian playbook), timing (6, early administration), narrative pivot (5, from inflation to control), mismatch (4, economic vs political framing). Intentionality moderate (6) for deliberate institutional targeting. Final B: 23.1. Delta: -0.7. Both scores near threshold (25), delta minimal = Mixed classification. This represents genuine institutional threat with significant media amplification.
Monitor for: (1) Actual executive order text and legal mechanisms proposed, (2) Federal Reserve Board response and legal challenges, (3) Market reaction and economic expert consensus, (4) Historical precedent analysis from constitutional scholars, (5) Whether this remains rhetorical threat vs. implemented policy change. Key distinction: norm erosion vs. actual institutional capture. If formal legal changes proposed, rescore with higher mechanism modifier and institutional capture driver.