Weekly civic intelligence report · v2.2
Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian aircraft sold in the US, specifically citing Canada's refusal to certify Gulfstream models. This represents a trade escalation using tariff threats as leverage over aircraft certification standards.
This tariff threat scores A=8.1 (below 25 threshold) with moderate rule_of_law impact (2.5) from weaponizing trade policy for non-trade objectives, separation concerns (1.5) from executive overreach on tariffs, and capture indicators (2) from potential industry favoritism (Gulfstream). Policy_change mechanism adds 15% modifier, international scope 10%. However, durability (0.9) and reversibility (0.95) reduce severity as threats are easily withdrawn. B-score=23.9 (just below 25) driven by high outrage_bait (7) and media_friendliness (8) from dramatic 50% figure, plus mismatch (7) between certification dispute and massive tariff threat. Intentionality moderate (8) showing trade leverage pattern. Classification: Noise due to both scores below thresholds, high reversibility, and pattern of routine Trump trade threats that rarely materialize as stated. The specific Gulfstream certification issue is legitimate trade dispute but 50% tariff response is disproportionate posturing.
Monitor for actual tariff implementation or formal trade action filing. Track if Canada changes Gulfstream certification policy under pressure. Watch for pattern of similar threats against other trading partners as potential systematic abuse of executive trade authority.