Weekly civic intelligence report · v2.2
Trump approves covert CIA operations in Venezuela, sparking concerns about potential conflict escalation. This represents a significant foreign policy action with military implications.
Covert CIA operations represent genuine constitutional concern through separation of powers (executive war powers without congressional authorization), rule of law (extraterritorial operations), and violence potential (military/intelligence action). Policy_change mechanism with international scope justifies 1.3x and 1.2x modifiers. Severity: durability 1.1 (covert programs persist), reversibility 0.9 (can be rescinded), precedent 1.2 (expands executive unilateral action). Base: (1×0.22 + 3×0.18 + 4×0.16 + 1×0.14 + 2×0.14 + 1×0.10 + 3×0.06) = 2.42×6.55 severity avg×1.3×1.2 = 24.42. B-score: Layer1 high on outrage (foreign intervention) and media friendliness (spy thriller narrative) = 11.0. Layer2 moderate on pattern matching (regime change history) = 6.3. Intentionality low (leak timing, framing) = 4/15. Final B = 11.0×0.55 + 6.3×0.45×1.13 = 17.29. Delta = +7.13 favors A but below +10 threshold. However, A just below 25 threshold and clear mechanism places this as borderline List A with moderate confidence.
Monitor for: (1) Congressional response/authorization demands, (2) Scope creep of operations, (3) Whether this becomes precedent for unilateral executive military action, (4) Actual implementation vs. announcement theater. Key distinction: genuine expansion of executive war powers vs. symbolic posturing for domestic/international audiences.