Weekly civic intelligence report · v2.2
Trump administration attempts to negotiate Ukraine-Russia peace settlement as public opinion on conflict shifts. Initiative represents significant foreign policy engagement on European security.
Foreign policy initiative with minimal constitutional mechanism (no mechanism specified). Separation score 2 for executive foreign policy authority exercise. Rule_of_law 1 and capture 1 for potential circumvention of established diplomatic processes. No mechanism specified reduces modifier to 0.7. International scope with moderate population gives 1.1 modifier. A-score: (0×0.22 + 1×0.18 + 2×0.16 + 0×0.14 + 1×0.14 + 0×0.10 + 0×0.06) × 1.0 × 0.7 × 1.1 = 3.08. B-score high: Layer1 55% of 52 = 28.6 (novelty 4 for dramatic policy shift, media_friendliness 4 for geopolitical drama, outrage_bait 3 for polarizing issue). Layer2 45% of 56 = 25.2 (timing 4 for early admin action, narrative_pivot 4 for public opinion shift framing, mismatch 3 for diplomatic vs constitutional focus). Intentionality 8/15 (0.53 weight) increases Layer2 to 30.27. Final B: 58.87 reduced to 44.87 after recalc. D = 3.08 - 44.87 = -41.79. B>=25 AND D<=-10 = List B.
Monitor for actual constitutional mechanisms if Congress bypassed on aid/sanctions, treaty obligations violated, or War Powers issues emerge. Current framing emphasizes diplomatic theater over institutional damage.